The Milky Way Deconstructed

girls after saying something smart: So yeah

Close up of Space Shuttle Atlantis docked to the ISS. 🚀✨

My thoughts on the upcoming IFT-3 flight of Starship-Super Heavy

As of writing (12th of February), IFT-3 is currently scheduled to occur later this month, but it could still easily get delayed.

My prediction is that IFT-3 will probably achieve orbit and will probably conduct an internal propellant-transfer, but that the upper stage (SN28) will probably suffer a failure of some kind during reëntry, either being destroyed or deviating far from its targetted splashdown-zone.

It's safe to say that successful reëntry is unlikely on IFT-3. Here's why:

The Starship upper stage will be the largest reëntry-vehicle ever built.

This reëntry profile (a belly-first reëntry with four fins used for stability) is unique and has never been done before. Starship's belly-first orientation is inherently ærodynamically unstable, which is why it needs constant corrections from the four fins. It could get trapped in a nose-first or tail-first orientation, both of which might be more stable. Else, a loss of control would just result in endless tumbling.

We've already seen heatshield-tiles falling off during IFT-1 and IFT-2. In fact, more fell off the latter than the former due to higher ærodynamic pressures and engine vibrations.

A failure during reëntry would be consistent with the general pattern of testflight-failures established so far. Essentially, each flight is a failure, but less of a failure than the previous one.

Honestly, I don't know what could happen to the first stage booster (B10). SpaceX knows how to do boostback-burns and propulsive landings. It's seemingly just a matter of preventing the vehicle from blowing itself up. Engine reliability will probably determine the booster's success.

It'll be interesting to watch nonetheless.

The fate of the Artemis Programme now depends on the success of these test flights and in SpaceX rapidly developing and utilising this reüsable launch-system. Development has been ongoing for over five years now, and the vehicle has yet to reach orbit. The landing of astronauts on the Moon is scheduled for September 2026. How likely is it that SpaceX will have humans on the Moon in just two and a half years from now?

Space is one of the most hazardous environments for a human being to exist in. That's what makes it so damned enticing.

Space is so essentially deadly. It differs from any location on Earth in that way. You can't 'tame' space. You can't make a vacuum hospitable. Space is a desolate, dry, sterile, irradiated expanse, which is home to extreme temperatures and occasional overspeeding projectiles, and to which full-body exposure is almost instantly lethal. Space must command your respect.

I wish some people would realise that the obstacle to colonising Mars isn't just a lack of funding. It's crazy that there's people in the world who think that billionaires are just going to build extraterrestrial cities like it's so easy. ‘Oh, we'll just build thousands of giant rockets, and oh we'll just stuff 100 people inside each, and oh we'll just travel in an armada through deep-space, and oh we'll just land thousands of giant rockets on Mars, and oh we'll just build a city with millions of inhabitants on a freezing rocky desert with no breathable atmosphere, almost no running water, toxic soil, literally nothing to eat, and no economic incentive. Why hasn't anyone done this already? Total no-brainer!’

I say this because I used to be the kind of person who had actually thought that Mars colonisation were possible and could happen in my lifetime.

My girlfriend and I could not stop laughing about this motion blur, so I...

Mission Specialist Sally Ride sits in aft flight deck mission specialists seat of STS-7 Challenger during deorbit preparations.

Date: June 24, 1983

NASA ID: STS007-31-1603

The first West Coast SpaceX launch captured by photographer Dylan Schwartz.

Artist's concept of the missile-mounted Space Shuttle Orbiter during launch.

Date: November 23, 1981

NARA: 6364453

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