Well! I Told Myself That I Would Do Something Special When I Got 93 Followers, (my Next Bench Mark Is

Survivorship Bias

I have posted about survivorship bias and how it affects your career choices: how a Hollywood actor giving the classic “follow your dreams and never give up” line is bad advice and is pure survivorship bias at work.

When I read up on the wikipedia page, I encountered an interesting story:

During WWII the US  Air Force wanted to minimize bomber losses to enemy fire. The Center for Naval Analyses ran a research on where bombers tend to get hit with the explicit aim of enforcing the parts of the airframe that is most likely to receive incoming fire. This is what they came up with:

So, they said: the red dots are where bombers are most likely to be hit, so put some more armor on those parts to make the bombers more resilient. That looked like a logical conclusion, until Abraham Wald - a mathematician - started asking questions: 

- how did you obtain that data? - well, we looked at every bomber returning from a raid, marked the damages on the airframe on a sheet and collected the sheets from all allied air bases over months. What you see is the result of hundreds of those sheets. - and your conclusion? - well, the red dots are where the bombers were hit. So let’s enforce those parts because they are most exposed to enemy fire.  - no. the red dots are where a bomber can take a hit and return. The bombers that took a hit to the ailerons, the engines or the cockpit never made it home. That’s why they are absent in your data. The blank spots are exactly where you have to enforce the airframe, so those bombers can return.

This is survivorship bias. You only see a subset of the outcomes. The ones that made it far enough to be visible. Look out for absence of data. Sometimes they tell a story of their own.

BTW: You can see the result of this research today. This is the exact reason the A-10 has the pilot sitting in a titanium armor bathtub and has it’s engines placed high and shielded.

Adorable little cinnamon rolls too pure for this world. #webarebears

me at every snail: that is the best snail

A crossover between Portal and Princess Tutu. This was fun! Maybe clean up later?.....Maybe.

I don’t care what you’ve done in your life. I don’t care how many peace prizes you’ve won or how many people you nailed. I don’t care if you’ve won emmys, oscars, or globes. Nothing you have done or will do can compare to the Corgi Avengers.

(Decided to do something a little different :3 I know it isn’t CGI but I thought this might be fun to post too!)

THE CUTEST THING EVER IS WHEN PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT SOMETHING THEY LIKE AND THEY CAN’T STOP SMILING BECAUSE THE THING MAKES THEM VERY HAPPY AND YOU CAN SEE THE PASSION IN THEIR EYES AND IT’S JUST

*snort*

My therapist just told me a joke.

So this girl walks up to another girl and says “Hey, have you heard of the Bechdel Test?”

And the other girl says, “Yeah, my boyfriend was telling me about it the other day!”

2 Things I Appreciate about Princess TuTu

1. It's Respect towards Ballet

Barring that first episode,  the main focus of the ballet is not as a gimmick.

Dance is an art form and a style of communication. As my theatre teacher once said, "When words aren't enough, you sing. When singing isn't enough, you dance. And when dancing isn't enough, you sing and dance together."   

Throughout the show, the "fight scenes" are a "war" of ideas, and ballet is used as a conduit and punctuation for said ideas. 

The ballet is used for expression, and while magical elements do occur (for example, Tutu dancing on top of water, or practically flying, or growing plants instantaneously. (which isn't totally uncalled for given that it's taking place inside a story)) the ballet puts the characters thoughts, feelings, and beliefs center stage.

2. The Character Development

Okay, confession time.

When I was first watching Princess Tutu, THIS guy made me really upset. I stuck around for a few episodes because I wanted to see Duck and Mytho end up together, but THIS GUY. EUUUGH......

I didn't hate him (To quote Swoozie, "My gang would never let me be a hater"), but I did dislike him to an extreme degree. Like, I loathed him. So I just quit watching the show and decided that I would look at some fanart to satisfy my desire for Mytho/Duck cuteness, except.......

All y'alls just had Fakir/Duck drawings everywhere,  and to be honest, I thought you guys were crazy. 

So I just swore off Princess Tutu, until one day I decided to give it another go.

And let me tell you....

I was not disappointed.

All four of the main characters grow in some way or another. THAT guy pictured above, went from being my most disliked fictional character to my most favorite fictional character. 

The Heroine grows

The Villain-ess grows

The Jerk grows

The Prince grows

And all in ways that, to me, felt very satisfying and natural. I may be remembering this show through rose tinted glasses, but these characters were very human.

Even if one of them was technically a duck.