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Institutions and hedge funds are selling stocks. Consider yourself warned. How do I know this? Let me explain simply. There is classic distribution going on and this can be seen clearly in the charts. 1. December 31st, 2013 the S&P 500 hit a new all time high of 1,848.36. The next trading day (January 2nd, 2014) stocks were sold hard. This tells us that as soon as the new year came, money managers sold stocks, taking profits. Remember, window dressing was over as of the 31st of 2013 and taxes on these new sales do not have to be paid until April 2015. Notice how eager they were to sell at the start of the year. That tells us they do not think there is much upside to this market. 2. Last Wednesday, January 15th, 2014, the markets moved higher, making a new all time high of 1,850.84. However, this was just an intra-day all time high as heavy selling came in, pushing the S&P back below the December 31st, 2013 high. One must ask, why was there such selling pressure as soon as the markets broke that high last Wednesday? The institutions are eager to use any excuse to sell. They would not even allow the market to close at a new all time high. 3. Today, the markets opened higher and hit 1,849.31 on the S&P 500. This was shy of a new all time high intra-day by 1.53 points. Please note that the markets this time, could not even take out the high from Wednesday as sellers started selling quickly. The markets have since gone to the negative side. Notice the trend of distribution is getting stronger. First you had a strong close at all time highs on December 31st, 2013. Then you had a weaker move as the markets broke that high but quickly pulled back below by the end of the day on January 15th, 2014. Then today, the markets opened just underneath those all time highs and sold immediately. Strong, weak and weaker. That is the trend on the S&P 500 as institutions start selling more aggressively. In addition, please note that margin usage is at all time highs. This is the amount that the retail investor is borrowing to buy stocks. The last time margin usage was at an all time high was in 2007 (before the financial collapse) and in 2000 (when the tech bubble burst). In addition, note that mutual fund money flow (retail investors) has surged dramatically in the last year. The same thing happened in 2007 as well as 1999-2000. Scary stuff. The bottom line remains…the institutions and hedge funds are unloading their long positions and retail investors should be very scared. Watch the F&%k out! Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks.com
Lazard Ltd. (LAZ), the independent merger adviser that earns about half of its revenue from asset management, agreed to boost disclosures about that business after a request from regulators.
Lazard said it will include tables showing inflows and outflows, as well as changes in market value for specific asset classes, including equities and fixed income, in future filings, according to correspondence between the Hamilton, Bermuda-based company and the Securities and Exchange Commission released today.
Lazard’s revenue from the business climbed 13 percent to $248 million in the third quarter from a year earlier as assets under management surged to a record $176 billion at Sept. 30, according to an Oct. 24 statement. Lazard’s proposed table shows the results were aided by a $9.06 billion appreciation in the market value of managed equities.
Judi Mackey, a spokeswoman for Lazard, declined to comment on the filings.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-10/lazard-agrees-to-increase-disclosure-of-assets-under-management.html
Zachs Equity Research
November 16th 2013.
Shares of Lazard Ltd. reached a new 52-week high, touching $41.66 at the second half of the trading session on Nov 18. However, the stock closed the session at $41.26, which reflects a solid year-to-date return of 34.7%.The trading volume for the session was 0.5 million shares. Despite the strong price appreciation, this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock has plenty of upside left, given its strong estimate revisions over the last 30 days and expected long-term earnings growth of 12.0%. Growth Drivers Impressive third-quarter 2013 results comprising a positive earnings surprise of 31.64%, top-line growth, a strong capital position and higher assets under management (AUM) were the primary driving factors for Lazard. On Oct 24, Lazard reported third-quarter 2013 adjusted earnings of 46 cents per share, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 35 cents. Moreover, this compared favorably with 26 cents earned in the prior-year quarter. On a year-over-year basis, Lazard experienced 10.0% rise in both revenues and AUM, which acted as positives for the quarter. AUM growth resulted from market appreciation and rise in net inflows. Additionally, the company’s capital ratios depict its strong position. However, a 4.3% increase in expenses was the headwind for the quarter. Further, Lazard has delivered positive earnings surprises in 3 out of the last 4 quarters with an average beat of 35.95%. Estimate Revisions Show Potency Over the last 30 days, 3 out of 7 estimates for 2013 have been revised upward, lifting the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.7% to $1.77 per share. For 2014, 4 out of 7 estimates moved north, helping the Zacks Consensus Estimate advance 6.1% to $2.44 per share.