夢の中で訪れた水族館 2

So Kinder, wir gehen das jetzt einmal schnell durch mit der Neuwahl und so. Hier ist die derzeitige Wahlumfrage:

Jetzt einmal kurz schreien und dann aufgepasst:

Das ist jetzt erstmal n grober Richtwert. Statistisch kriegen die Grünen und die Linke wahrscheinlich weniger Stimmen als in vorläufigen Umfragen, während CDU/CSU und vermutlich AfD mehr Stimmen kriegen. Wir nehmen die Werte jetzt trotzdem mal so.

Wir beobachten folgendes: - CDU gewinnt beinahe garantiert - Die FDP kommt nicht über die 5% Hürde - Die Linke erst recht nicht - 14,3% aller Stimmen haben keinen Einfluss auf den Bundestag, weil die entsprechende Partei zu klein ist - Die AfD hat keine Sperrminorität, selbst wenn sie sich mit dem BSW zusammentut

Das gibt uns die folgenden Koalitionsmöglichkeiten:

Bis jetzt lehnt die CDU eine Koalition mit der AfD offiziell ab. Bei den Grünen sind sie gespalten. Die einfachste und fürs Image attraktivste Option für die CDU/CSU ist eine Koalition mit der SPD. Das ist jetzt nicht gerade großartig, aber nicht ansatzweise so katastrophal wie Schwarz-Blau.

Hier ist der Knackpunkt: Wenn durch ein mittleres Wunder sowohl die FDP als auch die Linke in den Bundestag einziehen, sieht die Verteilung plötzlich so aus:

(Grafik stellt ein Szenario dar, bei dem beide Parteien 5% der Stimmen erhalten. Bei Einzug durch Direktmandate weichen die Nummern etwas ab, die Optionen sind aber die gleichen.)

Die "kleinstes Übel" Große Koalition ist nun keine Möglichkeit mehr. Welche Koalition in diesem Fall zustande kommt, lässt sich nicht mit Sicherheit sagen, aber die AfD wird für die CDU plötzlich sehr viel attraktiver aussehen.

Natürlich muss man dazu sagen, dass der Anteil an AfD dadurch schrumpft. Wirklich relevant ist das aber nur im Falle der Sperrminorität, die sie ja auch vorher nicht hatten.

(Wenn entweder FDP oder Linke die 5% schaffen, ist eine knappe GroKo noch möglich. Allerdings ist es wahrscheinlicher, dass die FDP die Hürde kriegt als die Linke.)

Die Zahlen werden sich im kommenden Monat natürlich noch ein bisschen hin- und herbewegen, und die Wahlergebnisse werden nochmal anders ausfallen, aber die Tendenz haben wir ja schon besprochen.

DESHALB:

Die eigene Stimme nicht verschwenden!

Wenn die 14%, die Klein(st)parteien wählen, stattdessen SPD oder Grüne wählen, hätten wir fast schon Chance auf Rot-Grün.

Die CDU wird stärkste Kraft.

Daran lässt sich nicht mehr rütteln. ABER wir können beeinflussen, auf wie viel Widerstand sie trifft. Je mehr SPD, desto weniger CDU in der GroKo.

Überleben ist wichtiger als Reine Moral.

Ja, SPD ist auch kacke. Ja, ich würde auch gerne lieber die Linke wählen. Ja, ich finde auch, dass die alle was falsch machen, und moralisch verwerflich sind, und Dinge tun und sagen, die mich zum Kotzen bringen, und für die ich mich schäme, deutsch zu sein. Ja, ich bin der SPD eigentlich scheißegal. Aber die SPD will mich zumindest nicht fucking tot sehen. Das Gleiche kann ich, als queere trans Person mit Uterus, nicht über die CDU sagen. Und über die AfD sowieso nicht. Und wenn ich Migrationshintergrund oder kein Einkommen hätte, wärs noch dreimal so schlimm.

Wir hatten das grade erst in den USA. So verdammt viele Nicht- oder Protestwähler. Und jetzt haben wir den verfickten Salat. KÖNNEN WIR DAS BITTE VERDAMMT NOCHMAL NICHT NACHMACHEN??

Wählt strategisch. Bitte.

Die Linke kommt nicht in den Bundestag. Deine lokale Furzpartei kommt nicht in den Bundestag. Steck deine Stimme nicht dahin. Steck sie wohin, wo sie was ändern kann. Wenn du SPD halt gar nicht hinkriegst, wähl zumindest Grün. Auch das begrenzt die Macht der CDU und AfD. Und je mehr sich ändert, desto wahrscheinlicher können wir nächstes Mal wieder was Schönes wählen.

a collection of motivational insights regarding content creation and creative hobbies

and of course the classic

I think I should take a break from scrolling through the endless cacophony of bad

I'll tell you a secret: I felt like I was better. It couldn't happen to me. I was worldly and supported and had a plan and I spoke well and in 2 languages. The world was waiting to unlock itself to my potential. Back then, I had the secret fear that the world was too small for me.

And it happened anyway. The terrible cliché I felt too good for. I got stuck in the home town. Plans didn't work, and suddenly almost a year had passed and I'd spent it in an internship that was my plan H in a place that was my plan Never. And now, with bloody fingernails, I've held on to the easiest dream I had. Not even the pretty, big ones that I thought I'd conquer for fun and joy. The easy one. And I'm sick. Two years at a minimum, first time I've been sick like this. I can do nothing.

Time is running out and university is drawing closer and I was sixteen in a school I hated and I PROMISED myself I wouldn't let it come to this. I wouldn't cave. I'd take the time I want and I'd see the world and I thought I was so prepared. I thought the world was waiting for me. I thought I was so privileged. I thought that meant everything would be butterflies.

Why can't it be butterflies.

i love how editing makes you notice tiny things you hadn't before

like i've watched this show too many time to count now but somehow i'm only now picking up on these bits from the charles vs night nurse scene in ep4

when the night nurse throws crystal away, niko immediately runs over and helps her up

then when they get back to the group, niko stands in front of her, mirroring charles standing in front of edwin

protective niko <333

Genuinely, what happened to “feminism is for everyone”?

That’s the feminism I grew up with: encouraging people to recognize that fighting sexism and restrictive gender roles helps folks of every gender. We’d push back on the idea that feminists hate men, pointing to inclusive feminist literature and how many men are feminists.

Now, there are so many people insisting that the solution to patriarchy is to openly hate and ostracize men no matter what. Why? What is the benefit? It’s certainly not effective in fighting oppressive structures to exclude half the population from your cause on the basis of immutable traits. It may feel cathartic to say horrible things about men and try to punish them for your frustrations with patriarchy. But the only actual effect I see is the increasing right-wing radicalization of young men, who are being told that the left hates them for the way they were born and presented with an abundance of proof that it’s true.

Why are we going back to treating men and women as different species? It doesn’t fix things to say “well women are the good gender and men are the bad one” this time. If you sincerely want to dismantle sexism, you’re going to have to unpack and let go of all sex and gender essentialism—even that which considers women inherently pure and men inherently immoral.

I... I don't know why not more people have reposted this. Because while I don't recognise the melody, the story, as my own, I recognise the beat. The rythm of finding out so many truths, so essential, in your life while elders tell you you're barely living. I beg to differ. These are my most vital years.

apparently teenagers don’t know a lot about life. I mean, its a fair argument. if I’m lucky I’ve still got a good 62 years left on this space rock. but just for shits and giggles, lets take a look at what i’ve learned so far.

when i was four, i learned that everyone does not, in fact, see blurry colors and shapes. i also learned that the level of fucked up my eyesight is can be measured in numbers. wicked.

when i was five, i went to kindergarten. in that first year of school, i learned that books are a way better way to spend my time than playdates.

when i was seven, i noticed that teachers really, really like me. and i really, really liked them too. turns out, elementary school teachers and i have a common love for whiteboard markers and “good job” stamps.

when i was eight, i learned that parents don’t always sleep in the same bed. I learned that sometimes dad’s voice gets really fucking loud and mom learned how to run when she was a kid too. i noticed that mom didn’t really get out of bed much anymore. she didn’t really do much of anything anymore. but she still let me sleep in her bed, so i didn’t really think about it anymore.

when i was nine, i learned that dogs have babies just like humans. i learned that puppies need more attention than even i did. i learned to love my puppies more than anyone else i was yet to meet. the runt of the litter died. by this, i was taught that the weak don’t make it far.

when i was nine, i learned that adults roughhouse too. but most of the time they aren’t joking. I learned that acrylic nails against a stubbly jaw ends with red and blue flashing lights and mom spending the night somewhere i couldn’t go.

when i was ten, i had to move from the only house i could remember. had to say goodbye to the room i painted into a blue sky. had to say goodbye to the pool in the backyard, where the first friend i made, had ever had learned my name.

when i was eleven, i met my first best friend. she was darker than me, but she held so much light. i remember talking on the swings and chasing boys through the multi-colored playground. i remember planning times to go to the bathroom so we could see each other between classes.

when i was twelve, my first best friend changed. she still had that light, but she used it to manipulate her way to the top of the popularity list. she wore too-tight shirts and white american eagle jeans. she made it clear that she wasn’t bringing a plus one to the top with her. she still came to my house, and when no one from school was around i could pretend that she hadn’t changed at all. that’s when i learned how to ignore the bad parts of people, even when they hurt you over and over again.

when i was twelve, i also learned that sometimes, people hate you for no good reason. after my first best friend, i met a girl. a-line blonde bob, jeans and tees just like me. she blended in, and i didn’t know who she really was until it was too late. i lost my phone in gym. my mom pinged the location and i heard it coming from a class down the hall. i opened the door, and there she was. my phone in her hand, her trying to turn it off. me biting my lip, running out to the bathroom to hide from my mom and her. she cut 6 inches of my hair off after we caught her. my mom got her expelled, and i learned one more thing that year. revenge isn’t sweet. it’s tasteless.

when i was thirteen, i learned that new situations are worse than the one you were trying to escape in the first place. I learned that the only time i felt safe was in the bathroom stall with my legs on the toilet seat. wanted so badly to be invisible. i learned that the only way to have a few minutes without anxiety, was to bleed. I learned to call the sting and the velvety warmth home, and since then i am uncomfortable without that burn.

when i was fourteen, i learned that writing is a better way to spend the time than much of anything else. with no direction i wrote short stories, bad poems, and journaled til i had a callus on my thumb. i smeared the pages with blood and never got more than halfway through a journal before getting bored of the cover. i learned to write and write and write until everything i had inside of me boiled down to hundreds of thousands of words.

when i was fifteen, i learned that no and maybe are synonyms to the wrong type of boy. i realized that even i wasn’t immune to the desperate persuasion that comes a guy who wants to get off. i started cussing a lot more. our movie dates ended with me crying myself to sleep, wondering why i didn’t say pull away when his hand found mine, why i let him use me like that, why i didn’t just walk out of the theater, why i didn’t fucking end it right there. i found the strength to later, and the revenge i got as tears streamed down his face was the same: tasteless.

when i was sixteen i learned that you can love so many people at once, all in different ways. a boy who led the group, kind when it matters and a great listener. a boy who made everyone laugh, with beautiful curls and honest hands. a girl who went to school in the town over, a voice that gets the birds harmonizing and me head over heels. a girl who supplies the music, mostly oldies she somehow got me to listen to and love. and this is how a romantic slowly meets their biggest weakness.

when I was seventeen I learned for the third time that you should walk away from experimental girls, girls who have a history of only being halfway interested, girls who say all the right things and give up when they win your heart. walk away from those girl friends that flirt when it’s fun. just because you give them everything they want doesn’t mean they will choose you when the dust settles.

I’m eighteen now. i’m learning that growth is something you have to work on every day, confrontation isn’t positive or negative, and not everyone is the enemy. i’m learning to love all over again (for the sixth time). it’s only been two months and i’ve already gained so much. here’s to the next ten.

'We said our goodbyes

And blew the stars out

Like candles'

- ellen everett

Redraw of an old drawing i did a while back :)

Vincent van Gogh. Evening Landscape, Nuenen, 1885.

unknown, from pinterest // Maurice (1987), dir. James Ivory // "Silent Noon" by Dante Gabriel Rossetti via poetryfoundation.org // Picnic at Hanging Rock (1975), dir. James Weir // Renoir (2012), dir. Gilles Bourdos