Survivorship Bias

Survivorship Bias

I have posted about survivorship bias and how it affects your career choices: how a Hollywood actor giving the classic “follow your dreams and never give up” line is bad advice and is pure survivorship bias at work.

When I read up on the wikipedia page, I encountered an interesting story:

During WWII the US  Air Force wanted to minimize bomber losses to enemy fire. The Center for Naval Analyses ran a research on where bombers tend to get hit with the explicit aim of enforcing the parts of the airframe that is most likely to receive incoming fire. This is what they came up with:

image

So, they said: the red dots are where bombers are most likely to be hit, so put some more armor on those parts to make the bombers more resilient. That looked like a logical conclusion, until Abraham Wald - a mathematician - started asking questions: 

- how did you obtain that data? - well, we looked at every bomber returning from a raid, marked the damages on the airframe on a sheet and collected the sheets from all allied air bases over months. What you see is the result of hundreds of those sheets. - and your conclusion? - well, the red dots are where the bombers were hit. So let’s enforce those parts because they are most exposed to enemy fire.  - no. the red dots are where a bomber can take a hit and return. The bombers that took a hit to the ailerons, the engines or the cockpit never made it home. That’s why they are absent in your data. The blank spots are exactly where you have to enforce the airframe, so those bombers can return.

This is survivorship bias. You only see a subset of the outcomes. The ones that made it far enough to be visible. Look out for absence of data. Sometimes they tell a story of their own.

BTW: You can see the result of this research today. This is the exact reason the A-10 has the pilot sitting in a titanium armor bathtub and has it’s engines placed high and shielded.

More Posts from Philosophical-amoeba and Others

9 years ago
Samurai Armour.

Samurai armour.

A chart I made showing the names of the various main components of a suit of “modern samurai armour” or tosei gusoku. Tosei gusoku refers to armour worn by samurai that began to appear during the middle of the Muromachi Period (1337-1573) with the introduction of firearms.

A full suit of tosei gusoku as shown in my chart would have weighed in at around 30 kilograms or so including weapons - there is after all a considerable amount of iron plates and lacing!

Lower class samurai such as foot soldiers (ashigaru) would have carried their own rations, bedding, and other equipment, but their armour was somewhat lighter being generally less ornamented.

At this point in time, known in Japanese history as the Sengoku Period or the Warring States Period, the most common samurai weapon was the spear followed by the bow and arrow. The sword at this point in time was a secondary weapon relied upon during close combat.

The sword carried during this period was the longer, gracefully curved tachi and was worn edge down on the left side supported either by it’s own tachi mounting (tachi koshirae) or by using a special leather “sling” (koshiate) if it was mounted without hangers (ashi).

Another shorter sword called a chisagatana - literally “little sword” - was carried together with the tachi at the left hip up until the Momoyama period (1573-1603) when it was abandoned. The chisagatana was originally a throw away weapon reserved for use by conscript foot soldiers (ashigaru), but higher ranking samurai soon took up the carrying of one as a back up weapon. 

Higher ranked samurai, those in charge of troops and generals in particular, also carried a short stout blade called a metezashi at the right hip, with the handle facing forwards. This weapon was designed for extreme close combat and used to penetrate the weak spots in an opponents armour. When swords were crossed, the metezashi could be drawn with the left hand and thrust into the opponent’s armpits. It could also be drawn with the right hand and thrown underarm in an instant to distract and stun an opponent before following up with the sword.

© James Kemlo


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9 years ago
Farming Amoebae Carry Around Detoxifying Food

Farming amoebae carry around detoxifying food

Five years ago, the Queller-Strassmann lab at Rice University, now at Washington University in St. Louis, demonstrated that the social amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum – affectionately nicknamed “Dicty” – can maintain a crop of food bacteria from generation to generation, giving these farmers an advantage when food is scarce.

Now, new research from the same team shows that these microscopic farmers also rely on their symbiotic bacteria to protect themselves from environmental toxins, a little-studied but increasingly clear role microbes can play for their hosts.

Research scientist Debra Brock led the new work, published April 20 in the Proceedings of the Royal Society B.

These amoebae are content to be loners when food is abundant, but when it’s depleted they come together in the tens of thousands to cooperate. They transform into a mobile slug that migrates in search of fairer conditions and then produces hardy spores to release into the environment and wait out the lean times.

The slug has a tiny pool of specialized cells, called sentinels, that protect it from pests and poisons by ferrying them away.

“The sentinel cells pass through the body, mopping up toxins, bacteria, and essentially serving as a liver, a kidney, and innate immune system and being left behind in the slime trail,” said Joan Strassmann, PhD, the Charles Rebstock Professor of Biology in Arts & Sciences.

Debra A. Brock, W. Éamon Callison, Joan E. Strassmann, David C. Queller. Sentinel cells, symbiotic bacteria and toxin resistance in the social amoebaDictyostelium discoideum. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2016; 283 (1829): 20152727 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2015.2727

The social amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum has both solitary and communal life stages. As long as food is abundant, it lives on its own, but when food is scarce the amoebae seek one another out. Together they form a slug that migrates toward the light and then a fruiting body that disperses spores from atop a stalk. The fruiting bodies are pictured here. Credit: Strassmann/Queller lab


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7 years ago

Solar System: Things to Know This Week

Add to your electronic bookshelf with these free e-books from NASA!

1. The Saturn System Through the Eyes of Cassini

Solar System: Things To Know This Week

This work features 100 images highlighting Cassini’s 13-year tour at the ringed giant.

2. Earth as Art 

Solar System: Things To Know This Week

Explore our beautiful home world as seen from space.

3. Meatballs and more 

Solar System: Things To Know This Week

Emblems of Exploration showcases the rich history of space and aeronautic logos.

4. Ready for Our Close Up

Solar System: Things To Know This Week

Hubble Focus: Our Amazing Solar System showcases the wonders of our galactic neighborhood.

5. NASA’s First A 

Solar System: Things To Know This Week

This book dives into the role aeronautics plays in our mission of engineering and exploration.

6. See More 

Solar System: Things To Know This Week

Making the Invisible Visible outlines the rich history of infrared astronomy.

7. Ready for a Deeper Dive? 

Solar System: Things To Know This Week

The NASA Systems Engineering Handbook describes how we get the job done.

8. Spoiler Alert

Solar System: Things To Know This Week

The space race really heats up in the third volume of famed Russian spacecraft designer Boris Chertok memoirs. Chertok, who worked under the legendary Sergey Korolev, continues his fascinating narrative on the early history of the Soviet space program, from 1961 to 1967 in Rockets and People III.

9. Take a Walk on the Wild Side

Solar System: Things To Know This Week

The second volume of Walking to Olympus explores the 21st century evolution of spacewalks.

10. No Library Card Needed 

Find your own great read in NASA’s free e-book library.

Make sure to follow us on Tumblr for your regular dose of space: http://nasa.tumblr.com.


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8 years ago
On This Day, 13th February 1743, Sir Joseph Banks Was Born.
On This Day, 13th February 1743, Sir Joseph Banks Was Born.

On this day, 13th February 1743, Sir Joseph Banks was born.

Sir Joseph Banks was a British botanist and naturalist who sailed with Captain James Cook on the Endeavour voyage of 1770.

Joseph Banks was born on 13 February 1743 in London. His passion for botany began at school. From 1760 to 1763 he studied at Oxford University, during which time he inherited a considerable fortune. In 1766, Banks travelled to Newfoundland and Labrador, collecting plant and other specimens. The same year he was elected a fellow of the Royal Society.

In 1768, he joined the Society’s expedition, led by Captain James Cook, to explore the uncharted lands of the South Pacific. The expedition circumnavigated the globe and visited South America, Tahiti, New Zealand, Australia and Java. Banks collected an enormous number of specimens on the way and, on his return, his scientific account of the voyage and its discoveries sparked considerable interest across Europe.

The journal kept by the then 25-year-old Joseph Banks on board HMS Endeavour is one of the State Library’s most significant manuscripts. It records the first Pacific voyage of Captain James Cook from 1768 to 1771. Following the Endeavour’s return to England in 1771, Banks was hailed as a hero. 

The State Library’s Sir Joseph Banks collection includes correspondence, reports, invoices, accounts, maps and watercolour drawings which document the far reaching influence of Banks on the colony. This significant archive containing over 7,000 pages has recently been digitised and now needs to be transcribed. Once fully transcribed the archive will be keyword searchable which will enhance discovery and access to the collection and increase the research potential in this significant archive.  

Find out more about how to transcribe the Banks Papers


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8 years ago
Harmonograph, H. Irwine Whitty, 1893
Harmonograph, H. Irwine Whitty, 1893
Harmonograph, H. Irwine Whitty, 1893
Harmonograph, H. Irwine Whitty, 1893
Harmonograph, H. Irwine Whitty, 1893
Harmonograph, H. Irwine Whitty, 1893
Harmonograph, H. Irwine Whitty, 1893

Harmonograph, H. Irwine Whitty, 1893

“The facts that musical notes are due to regular air-pulses, and that the pitch of the note depends on the frequency with which these pulses succeed each other, are too well known to require any extended notice. But although these phenomena and their laws have been known for a very long time, Chladni, late in the last century, was the first who discovered that there was a connection between sound and form.”

source here


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7 years ago
Since 2009, Ada Lovelace Day has Aimed “to Raise The Profile Of Women In Science, Technology, Engineering
Since 2009, Ada Lovelace Day has Aimed “to Raise The Profile Of Women In Science, Technology, Engineering
Since 2009, Ada Lovelace Day has Aimed “to Raise The Profile Of Women In Science, Technology, Engineering

Since 2009, Ada Lovelace Day has aimed “to raise the profile of women in science, technology, engineering and maths by encouraging people around the world to talk about the women whose work they admire.”  The day’s namesake, Ada Lovelace (1815-1852), was the daughter of Lord Byron and Anne Isabella Milbanke.  Ada, in possession of a keen intellect and deep passion for machinery, was educated in mathematics at the insistence of her mother. Later in life, Ada studied the workings of the Analytical Engine developed by mathematician and inventor Charles Babbage. In her notes on the engine, Ada described an algorithm for computing numbers – an algorithm which would distinguish Ada as one of the world’s “first computer programmers.”  

In honor of Ada Lovelace Day, we present some images from the CHF Archives of women working in various chemistry labs. Click on each photo for additional information.

And for more women in science content, consider taking a look at the films in The Catalyst Series: Women in Chemistry by the Chemical Heritage Foundation.


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8 years ago
On March 2, 1903 The Hotel Martha Washington Became New York City’s First Women-only Hotel. Located
On March 2, 1903 The Hotel Martha Washington Became New York City’s First Women-only Hotel. Located

On March 2, 1903 the Hotel Martha Washington became New York City’s first women-only hotel. Located on 30 East 30th Street, it served the growing population of professional women who otherwise struggled to find safe and socially acceptable lodging in the city. A far cry from the crowded boarding houses, this was a thoroughly modern operation housed in a twelve-story Renaissance Revival building that featured all the amenities, from a ladies’ tailor to electric lights. Upon opening, it was immediately popular, both with the women it served and with the curious onlookers who had a hard time coming to terms with the whole idea of the place.

George P. Hall & Son. Manhattan: Hotel Martha Washington. undated. photographic print. New-York Historical Society.  

Robert L. Bracklow. The Hotel Martha Washington. February 23, 1903. Glass negative. New-York Historical Society.


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7 years ago
E H Shepard Illustration From Now We Are Six By A A Milne 

E H Shepard illustration from Now we are six by A A Milne 


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7 years ago
NASA’s new searchable media library is a treasure trove of space pics and video
Do you like space? Do you like looking at it, wishing you were there instead of here, perhaps? Well NASA just did something that will make your day. The U.S...

The U.S. space agency launched a new web-based search engine for much of its catalog of images, video and audio files, which you can browse by keyword and metadata, so that you never have to remember the dismal reality that you’re earthbound ever again.


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philosophical-amoeba - Lost in Space...
Lost in Space...

A reblog of nerdy and quirky stuff that pique my interest.

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