In Most Applications I Think Bayesian Reasoning Is Not That Useful In Everyday Life, But I Do Think It

In most applications I think Bayesian reasoning is not that useful in everyday life, but I do think it would be pretty effective a strategy for like, planning the perfect murder. When people talk about committing the perfect murder they always come up with all this elaborate stuff like "oh we're gonna dissolve the body, blah blah", but the thing is, a ton of murderers don't get caught, and there are widely available statistics on every conceivable type of murder and just how likely it is to get solved. By going through all these statistics, you could not only plot a murder with a very low probability of getting caught, but get a quantitative estimate of just how likely you are to get caught and rationally weigh that against the expected pay off.

Someone should write a ratfic whodunit about this.

More Posts from Posessed-by-a-unicorn and Others

2 years ago

Wait Minnie and Poppy adopting Remus I love it.

Give me Remus telling them that he was dating Sirius and Minnie isn’t surprised because Sirius tells her absolutely everything that she may as well have adopted him too and Poppy is absolutely not surprised because of the amount of time that she had noticed Sirius trying to sneak into the hospital wing during full moons and had just turned a blind eye.

Give me Remus still getting awful nightmares from his father letting him get attacked and walking out and Hope giving him up at an age where he could remember everything, and Poppy rushing in and comforting him.

Give me them helping move Remus into his first flat after school (with Sirius), and giving Sirius the ‘if you hurt him’ talk.

Give me Sirius nervously asking for their blessing to propose to Remus, at the same time that Remus nervously tells them that he was going to ask Euphemia and Fleamont for their blessing to propose to Sirius, and just biting back smiles.

Give me both of them giving toasts at the wedding, and when it came to the dance, they just did two, so they’d both get a chance.

Give me Remus desperately trying to navigate all of the distrust during the first war, but having parents that are his rocks, giving him advice.

Give me Minnie knocking some sense into Sirius when he starts to suspect Remus during the war by shouting at him for a few hours, and helping them heal and make it through everything.

Give me Remus crying to them when he realised that Sirius was drifting away, when his missions were draining the life out of him, when they lost Marlene.

Give me Minnie and Poppy noticing the inconsistencies in Peter’s stories when Remus would talk about it, and saving James and Lily’s lives.

Give me Remus being adopted by the two most supportive and caring people he had ever known.

I need to write a fic of this

2 years ago

Jily and jegulus but make james polyamorous. Like fuck this argument. Why should poor james be forced to choose between his sweet lily and his sweet regulus? Why can't james have both lily and regulus at the same time? Why cant he like them both? Why cant lily and regulus reciprocate james' love for them at the same time? Why cant regulus be a second daddy to baby harry? Why cant james be loved and adored? Explain that to me pls and no idc about canon stuff james has both regulus and lily in my heart and idc if lily and regulus will somehow be incompatible or chaotic with each othet i want jily and jegulus solidarity. Please. Please and thank you for listening to my outrageous gay rampage.

2 years ago
More Art Tutorials By Disney Artists Griz And Norm Lemay
More Art Tutorials By Disney Artists Griz And Norm Lemay
More Art Tutorials By Disney Artists Griz And Norm Lemay
More Art Tutorials By Disney Artists Griz And Norm Lemay
More Art Tutorials By Disney Artists Griz And Norm Lemay
More Art Tutorials By Disney Artists Griz And Norm Lemay
More Art Tutorials By Disney Artists Griz And Norm Lemay

More art tutorials by Disney artists Griz and Norm Lemay


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2 years ago

I’ve been thinking a lot about Destiel, since one of my friends said that she can just as easily ship Cas with Sam, since the three of them are the only characters that appear in every episode. She has a good point, but then I realised, the reason we ship Destiel more than Sastiel (nothing wrong with that btw) is because the way the show is written/edited/filmed makes everything to do with Cas connected to DEAN.

Who always calls Cas? (9x21, 5x14)

I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship
I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship

Dean

Who gets inordinately pissed at Cas, taking the things he does personally? (8x22)

I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship
I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship

Dean

Who does the weirdly long, eye sex contact thing with Cas? (8x7, 7x17, 7x21)

I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship
I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship
I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship

Dean

Who prays to Castiel, when things are going wrong, even when they don’t know if they can trust him? (8x17)

I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship

Dean

Who was Castiel trained to kill, when both brothers were a legitimate threat to the angels? (8x17)

I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship

Dean

Who gets all the romantic parallels of other lovers with Cas? (12x23, 6x20, 8x07)

I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship
I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship
I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship

Dean

Who is so beside himself with grief that he doesn’t think to care about a newborn baby, because Cas is dead? (12x23) And forgets everything but Cas when he’s stabbed? (9x03)

I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship
I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship

Dean

Who does Cas always look to when making declarations? (6x20, 12x23)

I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship
I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship

Dean

Who does the camera ALWAYS focus on when Cas reappears?  (8x21, 13x05)

I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship
I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship

Dean

Who did Castiel go to see before he made his Deal with Crowley? (6x20)

I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship

Dean

Who does Castiel come for, from the very beginning? (6x03, 6x21)

I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship
I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship

Dean

Who is the person that Cas hugs first after being apart from them for any length of time? (12x01, 9x21)

I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship
I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship

Dean

Who does Cas go on adventures/hunts with? (13x06)

I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship

Dean

When possessing Cas, who does Lucifer choose to taunt, even though he has a lot more history with Sam? (11x18)

I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship

Dean

And who do the other characters always pair Cas with? (7x23, 6x17)

I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship
I’ve Been Thinking A Lot About Destiel, Since One Of My Friends Said That She Can Just As Easily Ship

Dean

When it comes to Castiel it is always, always, always, always, always, ALWAYS Dean… and that is why I believe in Destiel


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2 years ago
Guys I Cant Believe It, I Havent Drawn Them All Year?

guys i cant believe it, i havent drawn them all year?

this is a crime

anyway, venom 2 used the silly trope of staring into the sun and saying its beautiful, and their partner is actually staring at them.

Symbrock is canon and i cannot wait till venom 3

2 years ago

Found the best edit I’ve ever seen ohmygod

@/lvfrcptnswns on Twitter

2 years ago

me at any given time: can we just buckle down and focus on the task at hand please???

my brain:

my brain: ……….ranibow sprimkle……………


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2 years ago

hot take: 

Gloin is the sexiest dwarf by dwarf standards.

Kili is the sexiest dwarf by elf standards.

Thorin is the sexiest dwarf by human standards

& Bombur is the sexiest dwarf by hobbit standards


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posessed-by-a-unicorn - My respective thoughts (and other shit)
My respective thoughts (and other shit)

mostly reblogs - honestly, I can’t keep this organised. 🇩🇪🏳️‍🌈(they/she) Doctor Who - ??? - Maurauders - Merlin - Wednesday - and loads more

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