Curate, connect, and discover
Do heist stories still work in the modern world, especially the developed world? More and more wealth these days seems to be intangible and electronic, and more and more of the physical stuff that's still valuable is marked and traceable so that even if you take, it's hard to spend or unload it anywhere. What are macguffins that a thief in today's world could still physically steal today and realistically hope to profit from (without the profiting getting him caught)?
Heists still happen in the modern world. Hell, the entire NFT “economy” crashed last year as a result of a multiple heists. The Axie Infinity hack last year saw over $600 million worth of crypto tokens stolen. There have been many, many, famous heists, and there is no sign of them slowing down anytime soon.
So, in the vague sense of, “is it realistic?” It happens today, in the real world.
What gets stolen? Anything of sufficient value is a potential target. Art is one of the classic examples, and it remains a tempting target. Any liquid asset is tempting, and no matter how good the tracking is, chances are, someone will find a way to defeat it. In theory, crypto tokens are impossible to scrub, as the entire history of that token will be publicly logged on the block chain... so, thieves were using places like Tornado Cash to launder their cryptocurrency. (Incidentally, the US Treasury has sanctioned Tornado Cash, as of August last year.)
How realistic is it to get away with a heist? There are a lot of unsolved heists. Both, of physical items, and also with a lot of crypto thefts in the last few years. Some of the latter are believed to have been the product of state actors (read: Hacker groups believed to be working for authoritarian states with few extradition treaties.)
Art theft is alive and well. Now, I'm not an expert on laundering stolen paintings, however, from the ones that have been found, a lot find their way into private collections. Art collectors, and brokers who aren't particularly bothered with the legality of a given piece will move stolen art. It's not going to command the prices it would on the open market. (If someone estimates a stolen painting as worth four million dollars, expect that the thieves will get considerably less than that when they fence it, and while the fence will make enough to justify their risk, they're probably not going to be raking in millions either. Once it's made its way to a new owner, it will likely go up on a wall in a private gallery, or get carefully stored in a vault, and never seen again by the outside world for decades (or longer.)
Of course art theft can also be sculptures, books, or really anything else.
When it comes to other things, any liquid asset is a potential target for a heist. Cash, precious metals, and gem stones, are probably the most obvious examples, though, certainly not the only options.
The heist is, generally, a fairly consistent (if modular) structure.
It starts with identifying a vulnerable asset. The reason for the vulnerability may be important for the story, but not for the genre itself. This may be as simple as, “the asset exists,” and the PoV character learns of it, or it could be a situation where an exploitable flaw in the electronic tracking for the item is identified.
Once that's happened, then the ringleader starts assembling a team of specialists (and, amusingly, it is almost always specialists), to fill necessary roles in the heist. Usually this is a mix of technical specialists, social specialists, and at least some muscle.
So, assembling the team is something very specific to the formula, and not reflected in reality. A lot of real world heists simply need bodies, and prefer to have as few people as possible involved. The reasons are twofold. First, the less people involved, the less ways the resulting cash has to be split. Second, the fewer people involved, the fewer people that can lose their nerve and screw up, or rat their partners out to the police.
Once the team has assembled and they have a plan (this is usually hammered out along with the recruitment phase of the story, though that doesn't make a lot of sense when you step back and think about it), then they identify the preceding steps that need to be completed before executing the heist. This involves prepwork, sometimes smaller thefts to obtain the resources they need, and other necessary activities. (Again, this is more of a formula consideration, than a strictly realistic one. Especially the perpetration of earlier crimes. Those crimes can easily result in errors that would lead law enforcement to identify the heist before it occurred, and also help with identifying the thieves. To be fair, this is sometimes handled intelligently while staying within the formula to build tension. As the police close in on the team before they've even gotten started.)
After this, the team goes to execute the heist. Expect several things to fail simultaneously, with members of the team scrambling to salvage the heist. So, I don't want to harp on this too much, but this is another one of those places where the formula structure is extremely unrealistic. When looking at real heists, these kinds of fumbles will usually either botch the heist on the spot or provide the police with the threads they need to find the perpetrators. From a narrative perspective, it makes sense, it help build tension moving into the climax. So, while it's not realistic, that's not the point.
Once the team has the item, then they need to extract with it. Sometimes you'll see this skimmed over, but, getting the thing you're stealing away from the people trying to arrest the thieves is a somewhat important consideration. Generally speaking, yeah, a loud extraction with gunfights and car chases is going to end with the police response scaling to the point where escape is impossible. Also, generally speaking, most writers have a difficult time keeping stealth sequences tense, especially when their instinct is to transition into action.
Once they're out, lot heist stories end. The thieves, “won,” and the climax has played out. From a writing perspective, this makes sense. They won, and everything from here is going to be downhill. The team will break up. The actual process of fencing the stolen goods are going to be fairly dry, and, alternately, the process of laundering any cash they may have stolen isn't going to be that interesting either. There might be some lingering character threads to resolve, but the story is over, at least until you start another.
The main purpose for dragging a story beyond the heist is if you're setting up a tragedy. Probably with the police hunting them down for whatever errors they made along the way. I know I've cited it before, but Michael Mann's Heat (1995) is an excellent example of how the heist structure can be turned into a tragedy. (It's also a rare case that reworks a lot of the formula into something more realistic.)
On the whole, I'd say the heist genre is as relevant today as it's ever been. The specific stumbling blocks your characters will encounter are different. That always changes, and your ability to tune your story to your setting is always important. From a strictly mechanical perspective, there's no difference from your character accidentally leaving his driver's license behind at the scene of the heist, and failing to identify a tracker concealed in the stolen object. Both of them create a direct line from the crime back to that character. In a very real sense, a lot of the particulars for how this plays out is simply flavor. If you want your heist to be a techno-thriller, then you can absolutely do that, though you will probably have to spend quite a bit of time studying modern security methods and technology, but you can do that.
-Starke
This blog is supported through Patreon. Patrons get access to new posts three days early, and direct access to us through Discord. If you’d like to support us, please consider becoming a Patron.